The Oklahoma Thunder are sitting comfortably at the top of the board of the NBA: Western Conference. They seem set to take the #1 seed as the playoffs commence in late April. The second seed, however, is still a narrow race between the Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.
With little of the season left, we evaluate advanced analytics of players and the Rockets heading into the final stretch.
Two Impact Players: Alperen Şengün & Jalen Green
At just 22, center Alperen Şengün showcases his versatility and skill on the court. He averages 19.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game and ranks among the league’s top centers. His recent 33-point, 10-rebound performance against the Utah Jazz underscores his importance to the team, even in recent history and not just throughout the season.
Şengün’s most impressive impact comes in the form of sheer efficiency. His player efficiency rating ranks 17th in the league. He leads the team in several impact metrics such as win shares (15th in the league), defensive rebounds per 100 possessions (20th in the league) and 2-pts made per 100 possessions (4th in the league).
Şengün’s building on a growing trend of European influence in the NBA, with three of the top four best teams in the Western Conference boasting European superstars (Luka Doncic, Mavs and Nikola Jokic, Denver alongside Şengün).
Houston Rockets’ new contender
While the Rockets have a star-studded roster made up of Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams, just to name a few, Jalen Green has surprisingly had the highest statistical impact for his market value.
Despite Green’s salary being the 4th highest in the team, he leads the Rockets in sheer volume. Minutes played (6th in the league), Games played (1st in the league), and points (14th in the league) are categories Jalen leads internally. Far and away.
While his efficiency has taken a dip due to a high volume of play, ranking 2nd in the league for field goals missed, it is undeniable that keeping up this statistical prowess while putting up more time than almost all of the league has made him one of their most reliable pieces to build around.
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Advanced Team Metrics
The Rockets are an enigma of a team this season and may speak to a wider issue with the league. During the 2023-2024 season, the Rockets ended up as the 11th seed in the league and missed out on playoffs by a good margin. The team has since regressed in almost all offensive efficiency metrics, FG%, 3P%, 2P%, FT%, Defensive Rebounds and Assists.
In most teams, this would lead to further regression. But instead of dipping from the 11th seed, the Texans have bounced up to the 2nd. Looking at the stats, there is a clear case of improvement. Offensive rebounds are up 29% year to year and steals and block percentage is reaching 8% and 9.6%, respectively. This may speak to the fact that despite offensive shooting efficiency being low, the Rockets have found a way to make up for it by recovering the ball far more than other teams.
Rockets playoff chances
The Rockets currently have eight games left in the NBA season. Crucially, four out of eight of those games are what could be described as high-impact for seeding, facing off against the Oklahoma City Thunder once, Nuggets once and Lakers twice. With the Nuggets being one game behind and the Lakers being three games behind, beating the Lakers back-to-back would virtually lock up the #3 seed.
If the Rockets are to guarantee the #2 seed, however, wins against the Nuggets and Thunder will be of vital importance as they stand the toughest tests for the team. The teams have matched up once in the past season. And both times led to a loss.
Overcoming prior issues will make or break seeding. Interesting times are ahead.
